Online Trends

Who will win Oscars in 2018? Predictions based on online listening

Comfy slippers? Checked.
Huge pile of popcorn? Checked
Printout with a detailed list of this year’s nominees? Checked, checked and checked!

If you ask some devoted cinema lover about the most important date throughout the whole year, there is a chance that the answer has nothing to do with Christmas or one’s birthday. For such question, there’s one legit response: Academy Awards ceremony, also known as The Oscars.

Ah, what a day it is! Filled with breathtaking dresses and wardrobe malfunctions at the same time, beginnings of fiery romances and social dramas, tears of joy and disappointment, and if that is not enough, some absolutely epic mistakes! It’s definitely hard to forget last year’s finale, when Warren Beatty announced wrong “Best picture” winner, awarding La La Land instead of Moonlight. If by any chance there’s someone on this planet who hasn’t heard about it yet, now you have the possibility to see for yourself:

This year the gala will illuminate the cinematographic universum for the 90th time, with Jimmy Kimmel starring as the host for the second time in a row. Save the date – the ceremony will take place on 4th of March at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. That basically leaves us very little time to catch up with this year’s nominees. And as 2017 was full of rising stars and spectacular Hollywood dropouts, we can assume that this year’s gala and the final list of winners will be full of surprises as well, but…how does it actually work? Who has the casting vote and takes part in creating the history of cinematography? Are there any extra points? How can I participate in the process?

What’s what with Academy Awards?

An organization responsible for each year’s awards is The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, founded in 1927, gathering around 6000 cinema professionals from various countries and industry branches including directors, make-up artists, or visual effects experts. Though the whole list is a “closely guarded secret”, it’s quite easy to guess at least some part of it, given the fact that it’s a popular practice to invite Oscar nominees to join the organization.

Mentions in time of #Oscars2018

Each year, first two calendar months are crucial in terms of discussions on the topic of potential winners – press conferences, other awards’ ceremonies, such as Golden Globes or BAFTA awards, based on which many people try to predict Oscars, and finally, Academy Awards nominations – this year it took place on 23rd of January. To make the data more fair for all the nominees, we’re going to focus on the period between 23st of January, till the end of February, straight before the gala. We chose five major categories to focus on, such as Best Picture, Leading Actor, Leading Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

Who will win Best Leading Actress?

Let’s start with the ladies:

(overall share of internauts’ voice in discussion concerning actresses nominated in “Leading Actress” category)

When it comes to the share of voice, Margot Robbie, nominated for her impression of Tonya Harding in “I, Tonya”, takes the lead. However, if we look further and analyze the sentiment of mentions, this is where it gets really interesting:

(overall sentiment of internauts’ in discussion concerning actresses nominated in “Leading Actress” category

from left to right: Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie)

According to the graphs, pole position belongs to Sally Hawkins, who was the only one to surpass the barrier of 30% positive mentions! Sally’s performance in “The Shape of Water” won her a lot of fans and reached 92% of freshness at Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer. Additionally, Sally’s the actress whom many internet users picture receiving an award from Emma Stone, last year’s award winner.

What about the Supporting Actress category?

(overall share of internauts’ voice in discussion concerning actresses nominated in “Supporting Actress” category)

In this category, according to internauts, Octavia Spencer is winning without doubt. What is interesting, is the fact that the actress is nominated for the second time in a row in the same category, and what is more, she’s already the Academy Awards winner from 2012, when she obtained the award in the same category, for portraying Minny Jackson in “The Help”. Will she receive her second award this time?

What about the sentiment then?

(overall sentiment of internauts’ in discussion concerning actresses nominated in “Supporting Actress” category

(from left to right: Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Allison Janney)

And the situation is similar to first category! The least popular actress from the group – Lesley Manville – receives the biggest amount of positive mentions (and in this case, the difference between her and Laurie Metcalf is pretty significant).

Who will win an Oscar in the “Leading Actor” category?

(overall share of internauts’ voice in discussion concerning actors nominated in “Leading Actor” category)

Mesdames et monsieurs, Timothée Chalamet is completely crushing his opponents! This 22-year-old actor has already gathered very strong fan base (especially on Instagram, where his photos are being reposted with the speed of light) – and if that wasn’t enough, he’s the youngest actor that has ever been nominated in this category – if he wins, it will be a historical day for the whole history of cinematography, given that he’s competing with much more experienced artists.

(overall sentiment of internauts’ in discussion concerning actors nominated in “Leading Actor” category

from left to right: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gary Oldman, Timothée Chalamet)

Which of the nominees will become the best Supporting Actor?

Let’s see how it looks like in the last individual category, that is Supporting Actor:

(overall share of internauts’ voice in discussion concerning actors nominated in “Supporting Actor” category)

First place belongs to Sam Rockwell for his highly acclaimed role in “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”, where he brilliantly portrayed Jason Dickson –  a violent and alcoholic policeman, struggling with numerous personal problems. Many critics vouch for Rockwell, especially that his role has been awarded two times already – this year he received both Golden Globe and BAFTA award.

(overall sentiment of internauts’ in discussion concerning actors nominated in “Supporting Actor” category

from left to right: Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell and Richard Jenkins)

In sentiment category, Christopher Plummer is the one receiving the biggest amount of positive mentions. So far, Christopher Plummer is the oldest actor that has ever been nominated for the Oscar – in the moment of receiving the award he’d be 88 years old.

Which movie will get the Oscar?

This is the category that everyone is waiting for. The cherry on top of the awards, crowning the best motion picture of previous year. Without further ado, the online Best Picture Oscar goes to…

(overall share of internauts’ voice in discussion concerning films nominated in “Best Picture” category)

(from left to right: Call me by your name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread)

“Call me by your name”! In this case the movie gets the biggest amount of online mentions, but also the most positive sentiment among all the nominees! To be honest, I’m not surprised. I believe I speak on behalf of at least 30% of the internet when I say this is a beautiful book adaptation. Set in 80s Italy, depicting summer romance between 17-year-old Elio and one of his parents’ guest, it has moved thousands of viewers. Armie Hammer and Timothée Chalamet’s performances, the soundtrack, stunning surroundings and the story itself makes this movie an undeniable pleasure to watch. We’ll soon get to know if The Academy was equally amazed – let’s keep our fingers crossed!

Film industry is one of the most significant branches of pop culture, starting from inspiring collective imagination, ending on something more tangible, such as box office revenues. Oscars are definitely the big part of it, glorifying the greatness of the greatest, and showing the trends in cinematography. Will the voice of the Internet users reflect the decision of The Academy? May the best win!

SentiOne logo

Put insights into action!

Do you like what you read? Give online listening a go and see how you will benefit from efficient reputation management.